The
two most important causes of travel risks in the year ahead? The impact of
climate change and potential final year of the Trump administration. That’s according
to leading travel risk intelligence company Riskline. Suzanne Sangiovese,
Operations Manager - Americas at Riskline, explains further:
As we progress
into the new decade, two risks in particular will underpin the most dangerous
security threats this year: the ongoing effects of climate change and the
potential final year of the Trump administration.
In the case of
the former, it will be the mostly unseen, long-term effects that are the
greater danger, as droughts, floods or fires (such as the catastrophic Australia
wildfires) destroy land and livelihoods and become the catalysts for new
violent conflicts and forced migration.
Meanwhile the
prospect that 2020 could be the final year of the Trump presidency bodes ill
for international peace. Both allies and antagonists of the United States may
feel that the level of impunity they have enjoyed in foreign affairs since 2016
may be coming to an end.
Climate
Change and its impact on travel
Sustainability
is already proving to be the watchword for 2020 – the impact of climate change
on the world is now clear to see. Climate change has led to abnormal patterns
of torrential rainfall, devastating floods, severe storms, prolonged heat waves
and increased temperatures – all leading to growing water scarcity, droughts
and dangerous wildfires. Australia is currently fighting an unprecedented
bushfire season, which has been caused by record temperatures and widespread
drought.
With the
increased frequency of natural disasters – such as Hurricane Dorian which
caused massive destruction across the Bahamas in September 2019 – fatalities,
business and travel disruptions and power and communication outages are
becoming recurrent. Efforts to reverse the damage caused by climate change are
insufficient as the United States, the second-largest carbon emitter, plans to
withdraw from the landmark Paris Agreement in 2020 if Trump wins another term
in office.
A
collapsing world order: US 2020, Brexit
This brings me
on to the political situation in the US and the UK. The results of the 2015
Brexit referendum in the UK and the 2016 United States (US) presidential
election continue to upend long-standing domestic political norms in both
countries.
The long-term
outcome of both events is unclear at present, but a return to the status quo is
unlikely in either country - the pro-Brexit and pro-Trump coalitions that won
in 2015 and 2016 have mobilised social forces that will remain on the scene for
years to come.
Far-right
politicians and media organisations will gain further prominence in the Western
world in 2020, particularly as United States (US) President Donald Trump
intensifies his campaigning for the presidential election in November. Attacks
similar to the deadly March 2019 shootings at a mosque and an Islamic centre in
Christchurch, New Zealand, and the August 2019 mass shooting in El Paso, Texas,
remain possible particularly in the US, as right-wing groups gain more appeal
and expand their presence in mainstream American politics.
When the UK
leaves the EU, scheduled for the end of this month (January), this will lead to
major economic changes in the trading bloc. At the same time, EU members will
face further economic disruptions from the US-China trade war fallout as, so
far, none of President Trump's Democratic rivals have promised to remove the
tariffs imposed by his administration.
Although
predicting what will happen in 2020 is a fool's errand in an increasingly
irrational world, a careful examination of ongoing and emerging trends provides
risk professionals with crucial information for businesses planning the year
ahead.
Riskline is a leading travel risk intelligence company
providing country and city
risk assessments and real-time alert
messaging to fulfil duty of care requirements before and during travel.
Suzanne Sangiovese, Operations Manager - Americas at Riskline, is speaking at The Business Travel Show as part of
the panel session Forecasting Forum 2020
- The travel price and risk outlook for the next 12 months. Riskline is
exhibiting at Stand: B708. The Business Travel
Show takes place 26 – 27 February at
Olympia, London. Register for your FREE visitor pass at www.businesstravelshow.com.
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